DALLAS (KDAF) — There’s a rumor around town that some rain could be hitting North Texas this week and the National Weather Service center in Fort Worth is sharing the odds for that happening as well as some looks at the midweek forecast.
Here’s what NWS Fort Worth says about the odds of rain in North Texas:
“You’ve probably heard by now that there is rain in the forecast Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. But does that mean it will rain at your location? The answer to the question is one part weather forecast and one part statistics, and together it’s like a casino game.
SPOILER ALERT: This game has a 1 in 5 chance that YOU LOSE and don’t see any measurable rainfall this week! Since we know that the rain will be randomly scattered each day, and because a location that receives rain on one day will have no impact on its chance of rain the following days, this is like a game of dice. The weather forecast controls how “loaded” the dice are in ones favor.
The math says that the forecast for the North Texas region has an 82% chance that a location sees at least 0.01″ of rainfall this week. Unfortunately, the numbers for rain totals that are actually significant show that there is only a 22% chance of a half inch or more on one or these days and just at 2% chance of an inch or more – which many of us would call hitting the jackpot in this drought.
Bottom line: Most will see rain. Some will miss out completely. Just a few lucky winners will get more than an inch.”NWS Fort Worth/Dallas
Tuesday & Wednesday’s forecast in North Texas
Be sure to expect the heat to continue on Tuesday, but some small rain chances loom in the region, “It will still be hot on Tuesday, but rain chances will be on the increase!”
Here’s a quick look at the peak rain chances on Wednesday along with continued warm temperatures:
As Thursday comes into the picture, rain chances will shift to the southern portion of the region: